An Article Submitted by Ed Flynn

Five years ago the average price for a gallon of gas was approximately $1.50. The price of diesel was around the same price as gas.

Today they are asking $3.79 for a gallon of gas, and $4.55 for a gallon of diesel. That is more than double what we paid to fuel our cars, minivans, trucks, sport utility vehicles and Harleys five years ago.

In this new era of a rising population driving more and a shrinking supply of oil, should we expect a doubling of the price of fuel every five years? Or is the rate at which the price of fuel is rising going to accelerate like a “Ford Cobra Mustang” on Route 219, when news reaches the mainstream media that the major oil fields in Saudi Arabia have reached their peak and now will only supply a diminishing return?

What the price of fuel will be in 2013 is anyone’s guess. I’m guessing the price will be higher than it is today.

Some of the reasons the price of fuel will be higher in the future are, more people driving more vehicles and a shrinking supply of easily extracted oil. According to the United States Census Bureau, the population of the world today is 6.67 billion and is projected to grow to 8 billion by the year 2030. Those people want what we want. They want the American dream which includes owning a vehicle of one kind or another. In the 1990’s part of that dream was to own a “Ford Explorer” or “GMC Jimmy (I had my eye on the Ford Explorer Sport model).

Today the dream is somewhere between a “Hummer” at 14/18 miles per gallon and a “Prius” at 48/45 mpg.

What vehicle will be part of the dream in 2013? The world is watching and in recent history have been following our lead.

Saudi Arabia’s oil fields aren’t the only fields that have or are about to reach their peak supply. You might ask, who cares America imports most of it’s oil from Canada and Mexico. While that is true, it doesn’t matter since oil is traded internationally and the price determined by world supply + demand + profit. There is a large supply of oil still left in the world waiting for industry to extract it. But most of the large sources of oil remaining in the world are in forms (tar sands, shale rock) or in locations (deep under the ocean) that are more expensive to extract. Some people say that drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, in Alaska, will solve our shortage of supply - which isn’t true. Drilling in “ANWAR” would supply less oil than this country uses in one year, according to the United States Geological Survey.

Others say convert to ethanol, we will grow our fuel. The Federal government has raised it’s subsidy for ethanol to encourage more production and use. Apparently ethanol isn’t profitable without being subsidized by the taxpayer. As a result of Federal subsidies many farms have abandoned other crops and converted to growing corn for ethanol. This has already contributed to rising food prices around the world. Especially hard hit by the rising price of food are those in the third world already spending more than half their incomes on food. The price of food is rising for us also. So in addition to the rising price of fuel we will be spending more to eat.

Again there is no shortage of oil sources out there it’s just a question of how much are we willing to pay for it. You may have noticed that I have been writing the price of energy as opposed to the cost of energy. The mainstream media seems to like to refer to the cost of energy as if we don’t have a choice but to pay it. We do have a choice, but we have to choose now what we are willing to pay five and ten years from now. Oil and gas are commodities extracted, refined and sold in this country by privately owned industry.

We have choices when shopping for energy just like we chose what to buy, how much to buy and how we use any other commodity, product or service. We also have a choice of how much we are willing to pay and where we shop, and what business we buy from and at what price.

Our choices today will decide what the price of energy will be in 2013.

I stated earlier that there is a large supply of fuel in the world. The catch is that there is a shrinking supply of relatively inexpensive fuel. The more of that fuel we use up to power our personal automobiles the less fuel is available tomorrow to power home heating, industry, commercial transportation, public transportation, aviation, our military etc. We have a choice of what price we are willing to pay for energy by choosing what energy source to use and how much of it we’ll need to power our needs. The miles per gallon rating on the next car we purchase will determine how much demand there will be for fuel and therefore what price Energy companies will be able to charge.

Today I drive a car that averages 31 mile per gallon of gasoline. The same manufacturer later this year will be offering the same model car with a clean diesel burning engine that is expected to get over 50 miles per gallon during Highway driving, 40 mpg in the city. There are better choices out there for all of us.

Another option to buying cars that use less fuel is to buy cars that use a different energy source. General Motors and Toyota both plan to offer plug in electric cars, with longer driving times than anything that has ever been offered before, in the year 2010. Volkswagen and Honda are planning to offer diesel hybrids in the near future that are expected to get more than 70mpg.

Here in Orchard Park we can also choose to use our cars less. Walk and cycle when possible. Demand more infrastructure such as sidewalks, bicycle lanes and pedestrian friendly design, one example of which being parking in the rear with the building closer to the side walk. When purchasing your next car try to buy one with a low to zero emission rating, to be more pedestrian friendly and increase demand from manufacturers for more zero emission vehicles. You, your family and your neighbors will be healthier, more physically fit and safer as a result of the above choices.

Another choice some us can make is to take the bus to work. Orchard Park has two “NFTA” shuttles to downtown Buffalo every morning Monday to Friday. After stopping at a few stops in Orchard Park to pick up passengers these buses jump onto the highway and spirit their passengers right to Buffalo. Just like the train use to in the early 1900s. Carpooling is another option.

For your consideration.

 

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